According to MocoNews: “By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google (NSDQ: GOOG
) TV embedded in it,” Schmidt said on stage at the Le Web conference."
Connected TV’s will represent around 35-40% of total TV shipments, by mid-2012. They tend to be offered on units in the $400 price-range, and up. So, right off-the bat, we think Mr. Schmidt misspoke. We believe Mr. Schmidt meant to say: By the summer of 2012, the majority of connected TVs you see in stores will have Google TV embedded in it.
So, in terms of connected TV (Smart TV) penetration, we expect Google TV on Sony, Samsung and LG TVs early next year. Together, these account for roughly 40% of US shipments. If you add in Vizio – another likely candidate -- you’re north of 55% of US shipments.These manufacturers (especially Samsung) have invested significant amounts in their own platforms, including enabling App ecosystems of their own. Even if they introduce Google TV into some of their products, they are likely to remain test platforms for some time. For instance, Sony (one of Google TV’s launch partners) only shipped Google TV on 4 models of a lineup of a few dozen connected TVs.
Ultimately, then, it depends on how you define Google TV 2.0. If you define Google TV 2.0 as a single app from within the Google universe (i.e., a YouTube App that leverages its new leanback channels), then he may be right. If you define it slightly more broadly, to include the ability to run Google Apps – possibly in a way which coexists with native apps – then it will be easier to achieve. However, we currently think of Google TV as being the full Android O/S (including Google Applications) – in this case, we see it being mid-2013 before CE manufacturers rely on this, assuming reviews of platforms being demo’ed at CES and released early next year are fabulous.
Therefore, we think Mr. Schmidt is dreaming a little bit.