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Personal Navigation Devices

Making Money from a Declining Market

Research Report

Pages
60
Deliverables
Released
1Q 2011
Product Code
RR-PND-11
Price
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The long-term future for PNDs is looking bleak. Following a rapid rise, the PND market has undergone two years of continued decline. With the market dominated by falling ASPs and little innovation, there now appears little that manufacturers can offer to entice new users, or a replacement market. Popular cellular navigation and rapidly growing in-car telematics present two competitors that can offer impressive, unique selling points (USPs). Finally, PNDs have a line of successors as the "must have" electronic device. ABI Research believes that with the exception of emerging markets, the global PND market is in terminal decline.

This study outlines the options, markets, technologies, and exit strategies open to PND manufacturers, highlighting what is required to turn this market around.

What Questions Does This Report Answer?

  • Is the PND market in terminal decline?
  • What needs to change in the market to sustain shipments?
  • What impact will connected PNDs have?
  • What new business models and revenue sources are emerging?
  • Can Android and other open operating systems drive new growth?
  • What role can telematics applications play?
  • What are the regional growth/decline trends?

Who Needs This Report?

  • PND manufacturers
  • Map providers
  • Application developers
  • In-car navigation providers
  • Telematics providers
  • GPS manufacturers

Table of Contents

  • Executive Brief

  • Executive Brief: Top-Line Forecast
  • Traffic Information Systems: Top-Line Forecast
  • Executive Brief: Cellular Navigation Forecast
  • Executive Brief: Recommendations to PND manufacturers

Section 1.
Executive Summary 2
1.1. Trends, Issues, Drivers, and Barriers 2
1.2. Forecasts 3
1.2.1. Low Cost PNDs 4
1.2.2. Replacement Market 6
1.2.3. Commercial PNDs 8
1.3. Conclusions 8

Section 2.
Recommendations 10
2.1. Recommendations for PND Vendors 10
2.2. Recommendations for Application developers 11
2.3. Recommendations for Carriers and MVNOs 11
2.4. Recommendations for Chipset Vendors 11

Section 3.
Connected PNDs Ecosystem 12
3.1. Definition 12
3.2. SWOT Analysis 12
3.3. Alternative Real-Time Connectivity Methods 13
3.4. Current Network M2M Environment 13
3.4.1. Network Carrier Drivers 13
3.4.2. Potential Carrier Business Models 14
3.4.3. Current Costs to PND Manufacturers 15
3.4.4. Charging models 15
3.4.5. Emerging Business Models in Other Vertical Markets 16
3.4.5.1. Bundled Model 16
3.4.5.2. Carrier Cellular Bundling 16
3.4.5.3. Pre-Paid Model 16
3.5. Conclusions 16
3.5.1. Future Business Models 16
3.5.1.1. Competitive App Pricing Model 16
3.5.1.2. Subsidize/Free Model 16
3.5.1.3. Freemium Model 17

Section 4.
Emerging Markets and Applications for PNDs 18
4.1. Introduction 18
4.2. Commercial-Grade Non-Connected PNDs 18
4.2.1. Truck-Specific Commercial Navigation Routing Requirements 19
4.2.2. Non-Truck-Specific Commercial Navigation Routing Requirements 19
4.3. Existing Consumer Applications 19
4.3.1. Real-Time Local Search 19
4.3.2. Enhanced Real-Time Traffic Information 20
4.3.2.1. PND Traffic Market 20
4.3.2.2. Smartphone Traffic Market 20
4.3.3. Online Map and POI Correction Reporting and Download 23
4.3.4. Send Destinations to a PND from a PC 23
4.3.5. Off-Board Navigation and Satellite Imagery 23
4.4. Emerging Consumer Applications 23
4.4.1. Emergency Calling 23
4.4.2. Roadside assistance 23
4.4.3. Remote Diagnostics 23
4.4.4. Vehicle tracking, geofencing and driver behavior monitoring 23
4.4.5. Infotainment 23
4.4.6. Multimedia 24
4.4.7. Customizable dashboards 24
4.4.8. Social Location applications 24
4.5. The Potential of Telematics for PNDs 24
4.6. The Importance of Open OS Platforms 25
4.7. Conclusions 25
4.7.1. Hard Decision for PND Manufacturers 25
4.7.2. TomTom Platform 25
4.7.3. Garmin's Approach 25
4.7.4. Other Players 26
4.7.5. Speed of Innovation Must Quicken 26

Section 5.
Competitive Landscape 27
5.1. Major Trends 27
5.2. PND Vendors 27
5.2.1. TomTom 29
5.2.1.1. Connected PND Market 29
5.2.1.2. New Growth Areas 29
5.2.2. Mio/Magellan/Navman/MiTac 30
5.2.2.1. Connected PND Market 30
5.2.2.2. Repositioning of Brands 30
5.2.2.3. New Growth Areas 30
5.2.3. Navigon 31
5.2.3.1. Connected PND Market 31
5.2.3.2. New Growth Areas 31
5.2.4. United Navigation 31
5.2.5. Motorola 31
5.2.5.1. Connected PND Market 31
5.2.6. Garmin 31
5.2.6.1. Connected PND Market 31
5.2.6.2. New Growth Areas 32
5.3. Commercial PND Vendors 32
5.3.1. Garmin 32
5.3.2. Navigon 32
5.3.3. Navevo ProNav Goodyear 32
5.3.4. Rand McNally 33
5.3.5. Cobra 33
5.3.6. ALK Technologies 33
5.3.7. TeleType 33
5.3.8. MapFactor 33
5.3.9. Snooper 33
5.3.10. TomTom Business Solutions 33
5.4. Other Players 34
5.4.1. Jasper Wireless 34
5.4.2. GoPoint Technology - CARBonga 34
5.4.3. obdEDGE - Cellcontrol 35
5.4.4. Mavizon 35
5.4.5. Telenav 35
5.4.6. Harman-Aha Mobile 35
5.4.7. Fullpower 36
5.4.8. DevToaster 36
5.4.9. Airbiquity 36
5.4.10. deCarta 36
5.4.11. ATX 36
5.4.12. Intrinsyc 37
5.4.13. Carriers 37
5.4.14. Wireless Module Vendors 37

Section 6.
Market Forecasts 38
6.1. Forecast Methodology and Assumptions 38
6.2. North America 39
6.3. Europe 41
6.4. Asia-Pacific 44
6.5. South America 46
6.6. Middle East and Africa 48

Section 7.
Company Directory 49

Section 8.
Acronyms 52
Scope of Study 59
Sources and Methodology 59
Notes 59




18 Tables

Registered users can view table structure by clicking on the table title. Register now or Log in.
1-1
PND Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2010 to 2016
1-2
Connected PND Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2010 to 2016
3-1
Connected PND SWOT, World Markets: 2010
3-2
PND Connectivity Methods, World Markets: 2010
4-1
Traffic Data Vendor Customers, World Market, Forecast: 2010
5-1
Leading Connected PND Vendors, World Markets: 2007-2010
6-1
PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected, North America, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-2
PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected, North America, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-3
PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected, South America, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-4
PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected, South America, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-5
PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected, Western Europe, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-6
PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected, Western Europe, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-7
PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-8
PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-9
PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-10
PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-11
PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected, Middle East & Africa, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
6-12
PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected, Middle East & Africa, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
19 Charts
  • PND Hardware Shipments World Market, Forecast: 2010 to 2016 (Preliminary)
  • 2010 Navigation Survey Results: Plans to Upgrade current Navigation Device (US only)
  • PND Shipments by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
  • Carrier Navigation Subscriptions World Market, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
  • Application Store Navigation Downloads World Market, Forecast: 2010 to 2016
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Shipment by Region
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Shipments, Connected vs. Unconnected
  • PND Revenues, Connected vs. Unconnected