Wireless Doomsday Clock at 15 to Midnight

Author: Stuart Carlaw, Chief Research Officer

Published: 04 Oct 2010

I was recently at a manufacturer analyst event listening to the CEO put forward the interesting thesis that the US phone market is in something of an arms race. No doubt, as in every product market, there is an emphasis on innovation and one-up-manship of the competition that inevitably leads to product and feature set innovation. The startling thing about the smartphone market is that the pace of innovation is rapidly increasing. Moreover, this rapid change in the market is doing incredible long-term damage to the carrier community. A prominent feature in the media during the cold war arms race was the doomsday clock. If we apply a similar timeline of mutually assured destruction to the wireless market, then we could argue that we are now nearing midnight. What are the factors causing this situation and will it be defused?

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