World Financial Crisis and the Mobile Services Market

Economic Recovery Analysis for Mobile Voice, Messaging and Internet Services

In mid-2009, the positive signs of economic recovery continue to be countered by negative signs. The common demographic variable defining the world financial crisis is unemployment and expectations are for it to continue to rise into 2010 for some world regions. The mobile services industry has up to this point been recession proof and a rise in unemployment will not by itself change mobile services consumption. However, the longer that economic recovery is suppressed, as measured by elevated unemployment rates, the more it will impact growth of the mobile services market.

In this study, mobile services forecasts are presented for three economic scenarios defined by the region’s elevated unemployment level and its duration. Forecasts are provided for mobile voice, SMS and internet services in the areas of subscriptions, customers, usage, pricing and revenues. Forecasts are provided for seven world regions.

What Questions Does This Report Answer?

  • What are the primary economic drivers affecting the mobile services market as a result of the world financial crisis?
  • What are the mobile demographics that reveal which world regions will be most impacted by a prolonged world financial crisis?
  • What are the usage and acquisition changes that current mobile subscribers say they will make to their mobile services plans as a result of the world financial crisis?
  • Based on different economic recovery scenarios, how will revenue growth change by service type and by region over pre-crisis forecasts?
  • How will mobile subscription forecasts change based on different scenarios for economic recovery?
  • How will prepaid and postpaid subscription distribution change as a result of a world economic crisis if its negative effects extend into 2010 and beyond?
  • What will be the changes in mobile voice and SMS services pricing based on different economic recovery scenarios?
  • What will be the changes in mobile voice and SMS usage based on different economic recovery scenarios?
  • What regions have the most to lose in mobile data services revenues from a prolonged world economic crisis?
  • What can operators do to avoid the negative affects of the crisis on their business and maintain revenue growth?

Who Needs This Report?

  • Mobile operators
  • Mobile device vendors
  • Mobile messaging vendors
  • Mobile infrastructure providers
  • Financial services firms

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: Top-Line Forecast
Executive Summary: Scenario Definitions and Drivers
Executive Summary: Inhibitors
Executive Summary: Regional Results
Executive Summary: Strategic Recommendations

Section 1.
Executive Summary
1.1. Purpose
1.2. Drivers and Scenario Definitions
1.3. Forecasts
1.4. Summary of Results
1.5. Recommendations

Section 2.
Economic Forecast Scenarios
2.1. Scenario Descriptions
2.2. Scenario Definitions
2.2.1. Unemployment Changes by Region
2.2.2. Unemployment Duration

Section 3.
Subscriber Forecasts
3.1. Summary
3.2. Subscriber Adoption
3.3. Prepaid Subscriber Distribution

Section 4.
Voice Service Forecasts
4.1. Summary
4.2. Voice Minute Usage
4.3. Voice Minute Pricing
4.4. Voice Revenues

Section 5.
SMS Forecasts
5.1. Summary
5.2. SMS Usage
5.3. SMS Pricing
5.4. SMS Revenues

Section 6.
Mobile Internet Forecasts
6.1. Summary
6.2. Mobile Internet Services
6.3. Mobile Internet Revenues

Section 7.
Mobile Services Revenues Forecasts
7.1. Total Services Revenues
7.2. Summary

Section 8.
Acronyms
Scope of Study
Sources and Methodology
Notes





Tables
  • Regional Unemployment Changes Resulting from World Economic Crisis, World Market: 2008/2009
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Forecasts, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • World Economic and Telecommunications Snapshot by Region, World Market: 2008
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Labor and Unemployment Scenario Analysis, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Subscriber Penetration, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Prepaid Subscriber Distribution, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice and SMS Pricing, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Minutes of Use per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice per Minute Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Voice Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messages Sent per User per Year, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS per Message Pricing, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • SMS Messaging Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenue Distribution, Baseline Scenario, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Internet Services Revenues, Scenarios 1 to 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Near Term Recovery Scenario 1, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Mid Term Recovery Scenario 2, Africa: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, North America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, Western Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, Eastern Europe: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, Asia-Pacific: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, Latin America: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, Middle East: 2009 to 2014
  • Mobile Services Revenues Change by Services Category, Late Term Recovery Scenario 3, Africa: 2009 to 2014

Charts
  • World Mobile Telecommunications Revenues, 2009 to 2014