WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts

The Opportunity for Base Stations, CPE, and Mobile Devices

While the WiMAX market will eventually be dwarfed by the LTE market, there still exists a healthy near-term and long-term market for WiMAX infrastructure, CPE, and devices. While Clearwire and UQ Communications will receive much of the attention given to WiMAX services, there are many 802.16e networks being built around the world for fixed and portable use that can evolve for mobile use later.

This study examines major drivers and barriers for WiMAX and the potential for mobile WiMAX devices and services. The report contains forecast sets for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e-2005 that includes subscribers, ARPU, and revenue by region, and CPE and base station shipments, ASP, and revenue by various segmentations. Detailed segmentation is provided for mobile WiMAX devices, including external adapters, miniCards inside laptops, netbooks and MIDs, handsets, and consumer electronics.

What Questions Does This Report Answer?

  • How similar are mobile WiMAX and LTE?
  • Is WiMAX a 4G mobile air interface?
  • What are mobile WiMAX subscriber forecasts by region for CPE?
  • What are mobile WiMAX subscriber forecasts by region for mobile devices?
  • What is the equipment revenue outlook?
  • Which are the top mobile WiMAX base station vendors in terms of shipment market share?
  • Which key service providers will drive WiMAX and what are their plans?
  • Which mobile WiMAX device categories will be the largest?

Who Needs This Report?

  • ASN Vendors
  • Consumer Electronics Manufacturers
  • Content Providers
  • Handset Vendors
  • Laptop OEMs
  • Mobile Operators and Other Service Providers
  • Netbook and MID OEMs
  • WiMAX Chipset Vendors
  • WiMAX CPE Vendors

Table of Contents


Section 1.
Executive Summary
1.1. State of the WiMAX Union
1.2. Market Drivers for WiMAX
1.2.1. WiMAX Has Paid Most of Its Dues
1.2.2. Spectrum Availability
1.2.3. US Stimulus Package
1.2.4. Open Patent Alliance
1.2.5. CDG Support of WiMAX
1.2.6. Intel's Drive around Laptops
1.2.7. UMD Developments
1.2.8. G Service Pricing in the United States
1.2.9. The Creation of the new Clearwire
1.2.10. The Speed of UQC's Buildout
1.2.11. The WiMAX Forum's Global Roaming Program
1.3. Market Barriers for WiMAX
1.3.1.
1.3.2. G Data Service Pricing, Increasing Options
1.3.3. Delays in Certification, Spectrum Auctions, and Network Launches
1.3.4. G Solutions and Efforts around the Term "Mobile Broadband"

Section 2.
Strategic Recommendations
2.1. Recommendations for Device Vendors
2.1.1. Recommendations for Laptop Vendors
2.1.2. Recommendations for UMD Vendors
2.1.3. Recommendations for CE Vendors
2.1.4. Recommendations for Handset Vendors
2.2. Recommendations for Infrastructure Vendors
2.3. Recommendations for Service Providers
2.3.1. Recommendations for Fixed Wireless ISPs
2.3.2. Recommendations for Mobile Operators

Section 3.
Market Issues
3.1. G Cellular Air Interface
3.1.1. G Air Interface
3.1.2. WiMAX Roadmap Leads to IMT-Advanced Compliance
3.1.3. Misconceptions about LTE
3.2. How WiMAX Competes with or Complements Other Technologies
3.2.1. WiMAX versus Other Home Broadband Access Technologies
3.2.2. WiMAX versus Other Enterprise Solutions
3.2.3. WiMAX versus Other Backhaul Solutions
3.2.4. Mobile WiMAX versus Other Mobile Broadband Technologies
3.3. WiMAX Devices - Which Came First?
3.3.1. CPE and External Adapters for Laptops
3.3.2. Laptops
3.3.3. UMDs - Netbooks and MIDs
3.3.4. Consumer Electronics
3.3.5. Handsets
3.3.6. Other WiMAX-Enabled Devices
3.4. Key WiMAX Service Provider Activity
3.4.1. Asia-Pacific
3.4.2. North America
3.4.3. Latin America
3.4.4. Western Europe
3.4.5. Eastern Europe
3.4.6. Middle East and Africa
3.5. Clearwire
3.5.1. A Look Back and Hurdles Crossed
3.5.2. Sprint's XOHM Launch
3.5.3. The Formation of the New Clearwire
3.5.4. Network Coverage
3.6. New and Evolving Business Models
3.6.1. Pay Per Use
3.6.2. Flexible Shared Metered Use
3.6.3. Family Style Plan
3.6.4. Sign in from Chosen Device
3.6.5. Content or Application Service Driven Revenue
3.6.6. Price of Connectivity Included in Device Price
3.6.7. All of the Above

Section 4.
Technology Issues
4.1. Specifications
4.1.1. d: "Fixed" WiMAX
4.1.2.
4.1.3.
4.1.4.
4.2. Enhancements
4.2.1. f: Management Information Base
4.2.2. g: Network Management
4.2.3. h: License Exempt Networks
4.2.4. i : Mobile Management Information Base
4.2.5. j: Multi-Hop Relay
4.2.6. k: Bridging
4.3. WiMAX Forum Certifications and Timelines
4.3.1. Fixed WiMAX Certification
4.3.2. Certification
4.3.3. Certification
4.4. Benefits and Drawbacks of Smart Antenna Technologies
4.4.1. Multiple Input, Multiple Output
4.4.2. MIMO A
4.4.3. MIMO B
4.4.4. Uplink Collaborative MIMO
4.4.5. Beamforming
4.5. WiMAX Real-World Performance
4.6. WiMAX In-Building Coverage
4.6.1. Macro Base Station
4.6.2. Pico Base Station
4.6.3. Femtocells
4.7. Other Technology Issues
4.7.1. Spectral Mask / Guard Band and Device Implications
4.7.2. Frequency Re-Use
4.7.3. Interoperability

Section 5.
Key WiMAX Infrastructure and Device Vendors
5.1. ASN Vendors
5.2. Equipment Vendors
5.3. Taiwanese Equipment Companies

Section 6.
Market Forecasts
6.1. Methodology and Assumptions
6.2. d) Forecasts
6.3. m) Forecasts
6.4. The Total WiMAX Market
6.5. Mobile WiMAX Base Station Market Share
6.6. WiMAX Deployments

Section 7.
Company Directory

Section 8.
Acronyms
Scope of Study
Sources and Methodology
Notes





Tables
  • Fixed WiMAX Subscribers by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX Subscriber ARPU by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Shipments by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Shipments by Type (Outdoor, Indoor), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Shipments by Network Type (Private, Access), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Shipments by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Shipments by End Use Market (Business, Consumer), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE ASPs by Type (Outdoor, Indoor), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Revenue by Type (Outdoor, Indoor), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Revenue by Network Type (Private, Access), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Revenue by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX CPE Revenue by End Use Market (Business, Consumer), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX BTS Installed Base by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX BTS Shipments by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX BTS Shipments by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX BTS ASP, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX BTS Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed WiMAX BTS Revenue by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Total Fixed WiMAX Equipment Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Subscribers by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Subscribers by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Total Mobile WiMAX Subscribers by Region (CPE Subs + Device Subs - Overlap), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Subscriber ARPU by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Subscriber ARPU by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Subscriber Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Subscriber Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Total Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Shipments by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Shipments by CPE Type (Value, Premium), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Shipments by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Shipments by End Use Market (Business, Consumer), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Shipments by Amendment (16e, 16m), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE ASPs by CPE Type (Value, Premium), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Revenue by CPE Type (Value, Premium), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Revenue by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Revenue by End Use Market (Business, Consumer), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE Revenue by Amendment (16e, 16m), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Shipments by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Shipments by Device Type, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Shipments by Amendment (16e, 16m), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device ASPs by Device Type, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Revenue by Device Type, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Device Revenue by Amendment (16e, 16m), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE and Device Shipments by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE and Device Shipments by Amendment (16e, 16m), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE and Device Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX CPE and Device Revenue by Amendment (16e, 16m), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Installed Base by Region (Macro and Micro Only), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Shipments by Region (Macro and Micro Only), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Shipments by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Shipments by BTS Type (Macro, Micro, Pico, Femto), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS ASPs by BTS Type (Macro, Micro, Pico, Femto), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Revenue by Frequency, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX BTS Revenue by BTS Type (Macro, Micro, Pico, Femto), World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Total Mobile WiMAX Equipment and Device Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Fixed and Mobile WiMAX Equipment and Device Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast 2006 to 2014
  • Mobile WiMAX Base Station Shipment Market Share, World Market, 2008
  • Fixed and Mobile WiMAX Service Provider Deployments, World Market, 4Q 2008