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Saturday - May 17, 2008
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 Smartphone and OS Markets
Critical Considerations for Handset Manufacturers, OS Vendors, Mobile Operators, Semiconductor Vendors, and Application Developers The smartphone segment is witnessing the fastest growth in the handset market. Handset vendors are coming out with new smartphones every three to six months, and many handset start-ups enter the market with smartphones offering higher margins, allowing new companies to become profitable sooner. The operating system in handsets is the focus of attention. High saturation in developed markets means that carriers can no longer compete on price and tariff alone to capture new subscribers. Carriers need to differentiate themselves at all levels (handsets, services, and user interface) to achieve growth and protect their own subscriber bases. Additionally, generating higher data revenues is critical as carriers cannot continue to grow their businesses on voice services alone. Therefore, the OS is becoming increasingly important as devices need to evolve to support more complex service offerings from carriers. This study provides a thorough overview of the smartphone market, concentrating on key developments in both device feature set expansion and the evolving software landscape. The report covers important topics including specific features and technologies that enhance the user interface, in addition to the encroachment of open source software into the smartphone domain.  What Does This Report Answer?
Section 1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Market Drivers and Barriers 1.2 High-Level Business and Technology Issues 1.3 Critical Considerations 1.4 Key Market Forecasts 1.5 Key Takeaways for Handset Vendors 1.6 Key Takeaways for OS Vendors 1.7 Key Takeaways for Mobile Operators Section 2. STRATEGIC OVERVIEW 2.1 Introduction to Smartphones 2.1.1 Defining a Smartphone 2.1.1.1 Smartphone Definitions That Do Not Work 2.1.1.2 ABI Research’s Definition of a Smartphone 2.1.1.3 Difference between Smartphones and Enhanced Phones 2.1.1.4 Is Apple’s iPhone a Smartphone? 2.2 The Current Smartphone Market 2.2.1 Enterprise Market Dynamics 2.2.1.1 Productivity 2.2.1.2 Customization 2.2.1.3 Personalization 2.2.2 Consumer Market Dynamics 2.2.2.1 Productivity 2.2.2.2 Entertainment 2.2.2.3 Personalization 2.3 The Future of Smartphones 2.3.1 Quest for the All-In-One Device Section 3. SMARTPHONE MARKET DRIVERS AND BARRIERS 3.1 What Are the Factors Driving Demand for Smartphones? 3.1.1 Competitive Environment 3.1.1.1 More Carriers Pushing Smartphones 3.1.1.2 3G Networks Rollout 3.1.2 The Presence of Mobile Internet Devices 3.1.3 The Move to Full Browser Support 3.1.4 Smartphone as a Data Capture Device 3.1.5 Better Software, Open Operating Systems 3.1.6 Services 3.1.6.1 Push E-mail 3.1.6.2 Entertainment: Audio, Video, and Rich Media Content Delivery 3.1.6.3 Messaging and Social Networking 3.1.6.4 Location-Based Services 3.1.6.5 Wi-Fi and VoIP 3.1.7 Microprocessor Vendors Catering to Handsets 3.1.8 Wireless Semiconductor Vendors Catering to Handsets 3.2 Barriers to Smartphones Adoption 3.2.1 Consumer Unawareness 3.2.2 Cost of Handset 3.2.3 Size 3.2.4 Technological Limitations 3.2.4.1 Screen Size 3.2.4.2 Battery Life 3.2.4.3 Processing Power and Software Limitations 3.2.5 Cellular Operators Fear for Open Devices 3.2.6 Enhanced Feature Phones 3.2.7 Use of Multiple Devices 3.2.8 Price-Performance Trade-offs 3.3 Critical Considerations 3.3.1 Semiconductor Requirements for Smartphone Market 3.3.2 Subsidization 3.3.3 User Interface 3.3.4 Touchscreens 3.3.5 Haptics 3.3.6 MEMS Accelerometers 3.3.6.1 Motion Sensing 3.3.6.1.1 Situational Awareness 3.3.6.1.2 Digital Camera Applications 3.3.6.1.3 Exercise and Health Monitoring 3.3.6.1.4 Alarms 3.3.6.2 Tilt Sensing 3.3.6.2.1 User Interface 3.3.6.2.2 Gaming 3.3.6.2.3 GPS Compensation 3.3.6.2.4 Digital Camera Applications 3.3.6.3 Proximity or Shock Sensing 3.3.6.3.1 Shock Detection for Micro-drive Protection 3.3.6.3.2 Tap Detection 3.3.6.4 MEMS Accelerometer Market Devices 3.3.6.5 MEMS Accelerometers in Smartphones 3.3.7 Device Security (versus Openness) 3.3.8 Device Complexity Section 4. SMARTPHONE FEATURES 4.1 Essential Features 4.1.1 Commercial Operating System 4.1.2 Larger Color Display 4.1.3 Advanced Input Interface 4.1.3.1 Keyboard 4.1.3.2 Pen-Based User Interface and Touchscreen 4.1.3.3 Voice-Driven User Interface 4.2 Impact of Apple’s iPhone on the Smartphone Market 4.2.1 Growing Demand for Handsets with Touchscreen 4.2.2 Growing Emphasis on Handset UI 4.2.3 Operator Handset Vendor Relationships 4.3 All-In-One Smartphones 4.3.1 More Functionality 4.3.2 E-mail-Based Smartphones 4.3.3 Camera-Based Smartphones 4.3.4 Audio/Music based Smartphones 4.3.5 Navigation and LBS-Based Smartphones 4.4 Enterprise Smartphone Devices 4.5 Smartphone Hardware Components 4.5.1 Processor 4.5.2 Storage 4.5.3 Battery 4.5.4 Digital Camera Module 4.5.5 Screen 4.5.6 Keyboard Section 5. SMARTPHONE OS TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW 5.1 Definition: What Is an OS? 5.2 Historical Condition of OS in the Handset 5.3 Why so Much Interest in OS Now? 5.4 OS Key Considerations 5.5 Smartphone OS Choices 5.6 Symbian 5.6.1 Origins 5.6.2 SWOT 5.6.2.1 Strengths 5.6.2.1.1 Designed for the Handset: Resource Use 5.6.2.1.2 Maturity 5.6.2.1.3 Security 5.6.2.1.4 Symbian Signed 5.6.2.1.5 Independent Software Vendor Ecosystem 5.6.2.1.6 OEM Support 5.6.2.1.7 UI Abstraction Layer 5.6.2.2 Weaknesses 5.6.2.2.1 Single Vendor Platform 5.6.2.2.2 Closed Source Code 5.6.2.2.3 Lack of US Market Presence 5.6.2.2.4 Programmer Familiarity 5.6.2.2.5 License Fees 5.6.2.2.6 Total Cost of Ownership 5.6.2.2.7 OEM Connections 5.6.2.2.8 The Ability to Scale Up in Form Factors 5.6.2.3 Opportunities 5.6.2.4 Threats 5.6.3 Conclusion 5.7 Windows Mobile 5.7.1 Origins 5.7.2 SWOT 5.7.2.1 Strengths 5.7.2.1.1 Synergy with Windows Desktop and Server APIs and Applications 5.7.2.1.2 Out-of-the-Box Complete Solution 5.7.2.1.3 Brand Recognition 5.7.2.1.4 Carrier RFI Activity 5.7.2.1.5 No Ties to Handset OEMs 5.7.2.1.6 User Familiarity 5.7.2.1.7 Counterthrust to Symbian 5.7.2.1.8 Flexibility 5.7.2.2 Weaknesses 5.7.2.2.1 Not Tailored to the Phone 5.7.2.2.2 Number of APIs 5.7.2.2.3 Closed Source Code 5.7.2.2.4 Expensive Royalties 5.7.2.2.5 Weight of Legacy Code 5.7.2.2.6 Lack of UI Customization 5.7.2.2.7 Microsoft’s Intentions 5.7.2.3 Opportunities 5.7.2.4 Threats 5.7.3 Conclusion 5.8 Garnet (Palm OS) 5.8.1 Origins 5.8.2 SWOT 5.8.2.1 Strengths 5.8.2.1.1 Broad Developer Community 5.8.2.1.2 Large Number of COTS Applications 5.8.2.1.3 Maturity 5.8.2.1.4 Support of Desktop Microsoft File Formats 5.8.2.1.5 Carrier Support 5.8.2.2 Weaknesses 5.8.2.2.1 Networking 5.8.2.2.2 Poor Concurrency 5.8.2.2.3 Programming Model 5.8.2.2.4 Ownership 5.8.2.2.5 Losing Share of Number-One Customer 5.8.2.2.6 Limited UI Customization 5.8.2.3 Opportunities 5.8.2.4 Threats 5.8.3 Conclusion 5.9 Linux 5.9.1 Origins 5.9.2 SWOT 5.9.2.1 Strengths 5.9.2.1.1 Brand Neutrality 5.9.2.1.2 Software BOM 5.9.2.1.3 Shared APIs 5.9.2.1.4 Global Ecosystem and Strategic Partnership 5.9.2.1.5 Flexible Stack Options 5.9.2.1.6 Developer Talent 5.9.2.1.7 OEM and Silicon Vendor Support 5.9.2.1.8 Multiple Organizations Focused on Development 5.9.2.1.9 GUI Support 5.9.2.1.10 Single Processor Support 5.9.2.1.11 Solidification of Framework Options 5.9.2.1.12 Monetization Can Be Achieved 5.9.2.1.13 Onus on Pre-integration 5.9.2.1.14 Routes to Market 5.9.2.2 Weaknesses 5.9.2.2.1 Open Source and Ownership 5.9.2.2.2 Non-Standardized APIs 5.9.2.2.3 Fragmentation 5.9.2.2.4 Large Memory and Processor Footprint 5.9.2.2.5 Cost of Development 5.9.2.2.6 Lack of Mobile Specific Development Tools 5.9.2.2.7 Nokia’s Purchase of Trolltech 5.9.2.2.8 Time to Develop a Framework 5.9.2.3 Opportunities 5.9.2.4 Threats 5.9.3 Conclusion 5.10 Java 5.10.1 Origins 5.10.2 SWOT 5.10.2.1 Strengths 5.10.2.2 Weaknesses 5.10.2.2.1 Lack of Commercial OS 5.10.2.2.2 Profiles 5.10.2.2.3 Application UI 5.10.2.2.4 Single Vendor Environment 5.10.2.3 Opportunities 5.10.2.4 Threats 5.10.3 Conclusion 5.11 RIM and OS X Section 6. KEY SMARTPHONE VENDORS 6.1 Research in Motion 6.2 Motorola 6.3 Nokia 6.4 Palm 6.5 HTC 6.6 Sony Ericsson 6.7 Samsung 6.8 Hewlett-Packard 6.9 Apple Section 7. DEVICE MARKET FORECASTS 7.1 Forecast Methodology 7.1.1 Defining a Smartphone 7.1.2 Analyzing Global Handset Shipments Trends 7.1.3 Forecasting the Smartphone Market 7.1.4 The New Product Diffusion Model 7.1.5 Deriving the Growth Coefficients 7.1.6 The New Product Conundrum 7.1.7 Using Analogical Products as a Base-line 7.2 Key Forecast Assumptions 7.3 Smartphone Shipments, Revenue, and Wholesale ASPs 7.3.1 Western Europe 7.3.2 Eastern Europe 7.3.3 Asia-Pacific 7.3.4 North America 7.3.5 Latin America 7.3.6 Middle East and Africa 7.4 Smartphone Forecast by Technology 7.4.1 Smartphone Forecast by Average Retail and Subsidized Prices 7.5 Smartphone Forecasts by Wireless Connectivity Technologies 7.6 Smartphones with Touchscreens 7.7 Smartphone Vendor Market Share Section 8. OS MARKET FORECASTS 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Methodology 8.3 Device Shipments by OS 8.3.1 Symbian 8.3.2 Windows Mobile 8.3.3 Palm OS /ACCESS 8.3.4 RIM 8.3.5 Linux 8.4 OS Market Shares By Region Section 9. COMPANY DIRECTORY Section 10. ACRONYMS SCOPE OF STUDY SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY NOTES Tables
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