Mobile Linux Market Research Report from ABI Research

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Thursday - May 15, 2008

Mobile Linux

Bringing License-Free Operating Systems to Smartphones and Middle-Tier Devices

A device’s operating system is increasingly seen as a way for carriers and OEMs to differentiate their offerings. But operating systems are also subject to a growing degree of price pressure. Linux is being positioned as a low-cost, even license-free, solution for commercial smartphones, and for real-time operating system replacement in middle-tier devices. The industry as a whole is rallying behind the Linux offering, but significant barriers do exist – barriers that need to be addressed before Linux emerges as a true market power. This study provides a picture of the projected uptake of Linux in two major applications, as a commercial OS and as an RTOS replacement. It does not encompass any applications for Linux outside of the cellular handset. This study is not designed to be a technical assessment of the Linux solution, but offers a frank analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the Linux solution, and describes major drivers and barriers that are dictating the growth of the mobile Linux market.

What Does This Report Answer?

How many handsets will be Linux-enabled?
What proportion of Linux-enabled handsets will be commercial OS implementations?
What proportion of Linux-enabled handsets will be for RTOS replacement?
What revenues can be expected from Linux OS shipments?
How will Linux-enabled device shipments differ by region?

Who Needs This Report?

Cellular OEMs
Cellular carriers
ODMs
Independent software vendors
Commercial operating system vendors
Semiconductor vendors

Section 1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Forecast
1.2 Drivers and Barriers
1.3 Mobile Linux – Region by Region
1.4 The Mobile Linux SWOT
1.4.1 Strengths
1.4.2 Weaknesses
1.4.3 Opportunities
1.4.4 Threats
1.5 Conclusion

Section 2.
LINUX IN THE MOBILE ENVIRONMENT
2.1 Definition: What is an OS?
2.2 Historical Condition of OS in the Handset
2.3 Introduction to Linux
2.4 Why Interest in OS Now?
2.5 Why Linux?
2.6 RTOS Replacement
2.6.1 Why Choose Linux as an RTOS Replacement?
2.7 Virtualization
2.8 Work Dependant Timing Schemes
2.9 The Silicon Perspective
2.9.1 Processors
2.9.1.1 Dual Cores
2.9.2 Memory
2.9.3 Route to Market
2.10 The Total Cost of Ownership Equation
2.10.1 The Equation
2.10.2 Symbian Total Cost of Ownership Analysis
2.10.3 The Linux Total Cost of Ownership Analysis
2.10.4 RAM and Processor Cost - The Natural Extension to Total Cost of Ownership Analysis
2.10.5 Buy or Build?
2.10.6 Evolving Business Models
2.11 The Commoditization of the Linux Kernel
2.12 The Impact of White Label Product
2.13 A Non-Western View of Mobile Linux
2.14 How to Monetize Innovation in Linux – Understanding the Licenses
2.14.1 Critical Considerations
2.14.2 The GNU GPL
2.14.3 The Lesser General Public license – LGPL
2.14.4 The Apache License
2.15 Opening up the Device Space
2.16 Security
2.17 Native Versus HTML
2.18 Mobile Linux Standardization
2.18.1 Linux Foundation (OSDL MLI & Free Standards Group)
2.18.1.1 OSDL MLI Outlook
2.18.2 LiMo Foundation
2.18.2.1 LiMo Foundation Outlook
2.18.3 LiPS (Linux Phone Standards Forum)
2.18.3.1 LiPS Outlook
2.18.4 GNOME Mobile & Embedded Initiative (GNOME Embedded Linux Project)
2.18.4.1 Gnome Mobile and Embedded Outlook
2.18.5 Embedded Linux Consortium (Linux Foundation)
2.18.6 Open Handset Alliance (OHA)
2.18.6.1 OHA Outlook

Section 3.
MOBILE LINUX SWOT
3.1 Strengths
3.1.1 Brand Neutrality
3.1.2 Software BOM
3.1.3 Shared APIs
3.1.4 Global Ecosystem and Strategic Partnership
3.1.5 Flexible Stack Options
3.1.6 Developer Talent
3.1.7 OEM and Silicon Vendor Support
3.1.8 Multiple Organizations Focused on Development
3.1.9 GUI Support
3.1.10 Single Processor Support
3.1.11 A Solidification of the Framework Options.
3.1.12 Monetization can be achieved.
3.1.13 Onus on Pre-integration.
3.1.14 Routes to Market
3.2 Weaknesses
3.2.1 Open Source and Ownership
3.2.2 Non-Standardized APIs
3.2.3 Fragmentation
3.2.4 Large Memory and Processor Footprint
3.2.5 Cost of Development
3.2.6 Lack of Mobile Specific Development Tools
3.2.7 Nokia’s Purchase of Trolltech
3.2.8 Time to Develop a Framework
3.3 Opportunities
3.4 Threats
3.5 Conclusion

Section 4.
MARKET FORECASTS
4.1 Methodology
4.1.1 The New Product Diffusion Model
4.1.1.1 Deriving the Growth Coefficients
4.1.1.2 The New Product Conundrum
4.1.1.3 Using Analogical Products as a Baseline
4.1.1.4 Deriving Greater Granularity
4.2 Linux-Enabled Device Shipments
4.2.1 Linux Shipments by Technology
4.2.2 OS Revenues
4.2.3 By Region

Section 5.
COMPANY PROFILES
5.1 Trolltech
5.2 ACCESS
5.3 MontaVista
5.4 Wind River
5.5 A la Mobile
5.6 Open-Plug
5.7 OpenMoko
5.8 VirtualLogix
5.9 Azingo
5.10 Purple Labs

Section 6.
COMPANY DIRECTORY

Section 7.
ACRONYMS
SCOPE OF STUDY
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
NOTES

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