In what ABI Research is calling a significant milestone, at least a million femtocells are expected to have been shipped by the end of 2010. That forecast reflects the fact that femtocell rollouts by operators have more than doubled in the last year.

The forecast for 2015 is for more than 54 million femtocell shipments. 

China and North America the Keys

What will determine the adoption rate? According to mobile networks practice director Aditya Kaul, “The critical factor for femtocell adoption will be the operators in North America and, to an even greater extent, in China. Chinese operators are still trying to form a view about the femtocell value proposition. In North America, the question is which operator will be most aggressive with femtocell rollouts. AT&T is already proactive, but it appears that Sprint and Verizon are gearing up for a second wave of femtocell deployments.”

Drivers

Femtocells were originally restricted to the consumer market, but enterprise/business grade femtocells are starting to see the light of day. Apart from providing basic voice coverage, integration with IP-PBX systems is a potential driver. Outdoor metro-grade femtocells have also seen recent deployments.

Falling prices are providing a boost too – WCDMA femtocells are now priced below the critical $100 psychological threshold, leading some operators to give them away for free. Softbank in Japan was the first; Vodafone in Greece and AT&T in the US are selectively following suit for high-value customers.

Obstacles

However one hurdle still to be addressed, says Kaul, is that of coordination within operators, where the relevant departments aren’t always “on the same page.” The fact that femtocells are “base stations in the skin of access points” requires different organizational thinking and synchronization.

ABI Research's new “Femtocells” study covers Wi-Fi vs. femto, consumer, enterprise and metro femtocells; network offload; LTE femtocells; the shifting nature of the value chain, and the hurdles for mass-market femto. The report profiles femtocell access point vendors, operators and chipset providers and provides a 'scenario-driven' market forecast for the technology.

It is part of the firm’s recently expanded Femto and Small Cell Research Service.

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 28 research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.