The global recession is one of the factors that has put a brake on expected large-scale femtocell deployments by major mobile operators. However, according to a new study from ABI Research, the slowdown will only be temporary.
According to senior analyst Aditya Kaul, revised 2009 estimates project shipments at slightly less than a million. “Femtocell rollouts to date have been limited, controlled ones,” he says. “But ABI Research expects that 2010 will see shipments climbing well above a million units.”
Why the optimism amid so much gloom? “The signs are there that vendors are gearing up for a big push,” says Kaul. “For example picoChip, one of the industry’s main silicon suppliers, recently announced a multi-million dollar injection of funding, probably geared towards a ramp-up. There is a lot of similar activity behind the scenes, and new partnerships which point to preparation for a major market expansion.”
Femtocell investment can be done in stages with fairly low entry points, making it easier to justify in a tight financial market.
The starting gun for this race will be an announcement, which ABI Research expects to come late in 2009 or early 2010, of a multi-city commercial femtocell deployment by one of the major mobile operators. That, says Kaul, may encourage other operators to follow suit.
There are, however, near-term challenges facing vendors and operators alike. Price is one: ABI Research believes that although femtocell business models could be enabled at various price points, the psychological barrier of a $100 femtocell cannot be overlooked. Low-cost femtocells are essential to bridge the gap between niche market and mass-market deployments.
Also, until now, large-scale deployments have only been simulated in computer models: real-world rollouts could pose challenges.
Nonetheless, says Kaul, “These challenges are all valid, but none of them are show-stoppers – there’s no ‘elephant in the room’ that will pose a major obstacle to large-scale deployment.”
ABI Research’s new study, “Femtocells: Consumer, Enterprise and Metro Markets” examines the challenges to be met, ranging from defining the business case to achieving system integration when deploying millions of femtocells. The report also provides comprehensive coverage of value-chain activity and the format and architecture debates around femtocells.
It is part of the firm’s Femtocells Research Service.
ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of emerging trends in global connectivity. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advise thousands of decision makers through research and advisory services in seven key practice areas. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.
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