802.20's Time in the Penalty Box May Translate to Irrelevance

Author: Philip Solis, Principal Analyst, Mobile Broadband

Wed, 20 Sep 2006 18:42:06 EDT

At some point, I was not sure if it was over for 802.20 or not, but it seems that the IEEE will resume work on 802.20.  Resume is actually not quite the correct word to use in this case, however, since they seem to be almost starting over from scratch.  What's different this time around?

   - All of the officers are being replaced to attempt some neutrality
   - The IEEE 802 Executive Committee will police for attempts to dominate 802.20 efforts
   - All ballot and ballot resolution groups will be created from scratch, but the working group can choose to move forward with the existing work or choose new proposals
   - Working group participants are required to state their true affiliations at each meeting - any person or organization has requested, paid, or sponsored the person's participation in any way must be identified

So what does this delay mean?  IEEE 802.20 directly competes with IEEE 802.16e, which had been ratified near the end of 2005.  It is roughly 1 year since its ratification, and profiles within the WiMAX Forum will be narrowed down and WiMAX Forum certification for 802.16e products will begin shortly.  On the other hand, 802.20 is not even close to ratification.  By the time 802.20 is ratified, has commercially shipping chipsets on the market, and has equipment on the market that has been tested with other equipment for interoperability, 802.16e will already be deployed across the world in both developed and developing countries.  A whole device ecosystem including CPE, handsets, laptops, PDAs, and various types of consumer electronics will start becoming more common.

Stepping back to look at all of mobile broadband, cellular 3G air interfaces will be edging towards OFDM-laden versions, such as HSOPA, EV-DO Rev C, and the stage for LTE will be set.  Korean and Japanese companies will move closer to commercializing technologies that meet 4G criteria as well.  And 802.20 may become irrelevant at this point.

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