“20% of the Non-Chinese 3G Market to be Based on TD-SCDMA in 2020…”

That is not a forecast made by ABI Research. Our forecasts only go out to 2014. That assessment is a market expectation expressed by the Chinese Ministry of Industry & Information Technology. Oh, and in addition, MIIT expect TD-SCDMA to capture 50% of the domestic Chinese 3G market.
The Chinese government is certainly very bold and does very much have an attitude of “build it and they will come”.

It is not a philosophy to be sniffed at. That philosophy has worked with the Beijing Olympics and it has worked with the Chinese economy as a whole but that statement is still extremely bold. To put it in perspective, that is equivalent to 1.4 billion subscriptions of our latest ABI Research subscriber forecast for 2014 (it is the closest year we have to 2020, I need time to extend out our forecast models!), so in fact… the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers the Chinese MIIT foresees is even higher!

Only time will tell and it is good to set lofty goals but that is a bold one.

I will investigating this further in an ABI Insight to be published later this week. There are reasons not to underestimate MIIT's expectations.
Source: INTERFAX-CHINA