Analyst perspectives on key wireless industry topics including mobile devices, network infrastructure, mobile operators, mobile content, and short range wireless connectivity.

I recently attended the Avren Events European Femtocell events and an analyst colleague from a different firm (who shall remain nameless) predicted a market of 9 million femtocells in 2012.  This raises some very interesting thoughts.  If the market turns out to be only 9 million units per annum, the VC funded start-ups that have added so much innovation to this market will have burned so much cash that they would have been acquired or would have gone out of business.  This will leave us with the same old faces running the show. More importantly, there will be absolutely no diversity in this market in any strata - not a good thing.

More importantly, a 9 million unit market in 4 years is hardly something to crow about. Most carriers would have the opinion that, due to poor showings for their competitors (which a 9 million unit market would indicate), it is not worth their investment and they will keep their hard earned rubles for another opportunity. Just think how the majority of the carrier world thinks of dual mode UMA services today and then multiply it by a factor of 10 and you simulate the same mood that a carrier will be in when they look at a lacklustre 9 million unit market for femtocells in 2012. The market momentum will dictate a downwardly spiraling trajectory.

I really think this a boom or bust market.  Get it right and the effects will snowball out of proportion and the market will rush past our conservative forecasts of 45 million units per annum in 2013.  Get it wrong and the market will be worth nothing or as close to nothing to make it not worth talking about. The real onus now is on getting the right sales and marketing message ready for those initial consumer launches. The next none months will show whether we are in for a booming market or whether the market looks doomed to tanking.

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